Evolution and the NFL

One of the most fascinating aspects of the NFL to me is that it is always evolving – both on a micro and a macro level. It can be as small as an in-game adjustment to a specific play or player, or it can be as large as a change in philosophy or scheme.

But here’s the dirty little secret about evolution: it’s always playing catch up.

In terms of evolution, our bodies are still adapting to the stresses of the environment from multiple generations passed. As humans, we have parts of our body that are pretty much useless but our evolution is still slow to get rid of them. Now, with the supersonic advancement of technology in the last 50 years, it’s believed that the evolution of our bodies and beliefs are farther behind than ever before, simply because we cannot adapt fast enough.

The same can be said for teams in the NFL. There’s no better way to examine this than through a real life example.

In 1981, the New York Football Giants selected a young linebacker named Lawrence Taylor with the 2nd overall pick in the draft. Taylor, as we all know, became a menace and created major issues for quarterbacks and offensive lines. He typically lined up standing somewhere over the left tackle. As “LT” terrorized left tackles all over the league, teams began searching for their own versions of Taylor. The havoc that Taylor, and wannabe-Taylors, wreaked caused offenses to begin finding ways to protect their most valued asset: the quarterback.

To help protect the QB, teams began adapting to West Coast Offense philosophies as well as placing a larger emphasis on the left tackle position. Coaches and team executives began looking for guys that they could put out on an island and block guys like Lawrence Taylor without having extra help. They quickened the passing game and shortened drops to help get the ball out faster to aid in the blocking of players like Taylor.

Once the left tackle became such a prominent position with such a high emphasis, the overall play at the position got better. The position became known as a “cornerstone” position where teams felt they needed an upper-echelon player to even be able to compete consistently.

Lawrence Taylor had caused the left tackle position to evolve into one of the most important in all of the NFL. When that happened, defenses then began looking for ways to get to the QB without having to go against such great left tackles. The easy answer: send pressure everywhere else. And this is where the evolution stands today.

Defenses today aren’t afraid to send blitzes from anywhere – including the safety and corner position. In fact, it’s now one of the criteria that scouts are now evaluating cornerbacks on – how well can he blitz off the edge? Defenses are even moving their best blitzers over to the left side of the defense (over the right tackle) because the right tackle is typically larger, slower, and less athletic than the left tackle. In the past, right tackles were considered more run blockers than pass blockers and were drafted as such. Defenses saw the weakness and are taking advantage of how slowly offenses are evolving to this tactic.

Evolution is always playing catch up.

However, this week we saw a couple of examples of teams realizing that the left tackle position has now become over emphasized. The best example is that the Jaguars decided that drafting Joeckel and playing him at right tackle was just as beneficial as playing him at left tackle. They realized that the gap between the importance of the left tackle and right tackle position isn’t as great as the general opinion would have us believe. They’re evolving faster than everyone else.

It’s important in the NFL to notice trends as they’re happening and react with immediacy. Just in the last few years we’re seeing shifts into spread offenses, more wide receivers, no fullbacks, tight ends that function as gargantuan slot receivers, two tight end sets, taller and longer cornerbacks, added emphasis on a capable 3rd (nickel) cornerback, and slowly we’re seeing a touch of three safety sets on defense. All of this is in response to something else. Defenses are getting lighter and faster to help fly to the ball and take up more space in coverage. Eventually offenses will begin putting an emphasis on being able to power run (some already are) to combat those lighter defenses with more DBs on the field.

Part of the respect that I have for Bill Belichick is his ability to stay ahead of the curve – or ahead of evolution. He’s setting the pace, not adapting to it. The Patriots were one of, if not THE, first to drop the fullback position, go with primarily two tight ends, use one as an h-back and “Joker” type of player, and now he’s figured out a way to establish a power run game out of three wide receiver sets with Ridley, Bolden, and Vereen. So while the Jets are still trying to figure out how to defend two tight ends at once, Belichick has already moved on to figuring out a way to attack them in a different way.

If teams can recognize the lag of evolution and make a concerted effort to seek out trends and beat other teams to the punch, they’re setting themselves up for sustained success. Otherwise they’re just reacting to the pace of other teams and playing catch up.

 

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2013 NFL Philosophy Mock Draft

I’m not a fan of mock drafts but there are so many people asking me for one, I literally felt bad for not doing one. I didn’t do any trades because there’s really no way to predict those. So here you go, with very quick synopsis of each pick.

1. Kansas City Chiefs

Eric Fisher – OT – Central Michigan

Fisher is more athletic than Joeckel and I believe that’s what Andy Reid wants out of his LT.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars

Dion Jordan – LB – Oregon

Too much of a fit. Jordan fits both Caldwell and Gus’s type in speed and versatility.

3. Oakland Raiders

Star Lotulelei – DT – Utah

Star is dominant. He can collapse the pocket and is versatile. Good fit for what the Raiders want to do.

4. Philadelphia Eagles

Dee Milliner – CB – Alabama

The Eagles can’t compete in the NFC East without being able to defend the pass. Milliner gives them someone capable of hanging in with some good receivers in the division.

5. Detroit Lions

Cornelius “Tank” Carradine – DE – Florida State

Tank is my best 4-3 defensive end in this draft and he just seems to fit the Lions here.

6. Cleveland Browns

Sheldon Richardson – DT – Missouri

The Browns are in desperate need of a beast along the defensive front to take up space and allow some good LBs to roam free. Richardson fits that role.

7. Arizona Cardinals

Tyler Eifert – TE – Notre Dame

They got their QB and Arians was ecstatic about getting 2 tight ends last year in Indy. This will be a good fit and will help take some pressure off of Fitzgerald. Oh, and the Cards like their OL more than you do.

8. Buffalo Bills

Cordarrelle Patterson – WR – Tennessee

Don’t be surprised if this is Geno. But they Bills are really hurting at WR outside of Stevie Johnson. Other than WR and QB there aren’t many glaring holes for the Bills but I don’t think Nassib is the answer and I don’t believe that they are sold on him either.

9. New York Jets

Barkevious Mingo – LB – LSU

Need a pass rusher. Rex could do fantastic things with Mingo.

10. Tennessee Titans

Jonathan Cooper – OG – North Carolina

Tennessee wants to get tougher but I don’t think Warmack is a good fit for their zone blocking. Cooper is a much better fit.

11. San Diego Chargers

Xavier Rhodes – CB – Florida State

The Chargers have some serious holes all over the place but I think they’re looking at Peyton and thinking, “How are we going to defend him?” They may upgrade at OLB or OL here, but I think Rhodes fits for them.

12. Miami Dolphins

Luke Joeckel – OT – Texas A&M

Miami doesn’t have to move to get the LT they want.

13. New York Jets

Geno Smith – QB – West Virginia

I just can’t see New York passing on Geno here. I tried to go a different direction but I couldn’t talk myself into it.

14. Carolina Panthers

Desmond Trufant – CB – Washington

The Panthers have a pass rush but no secondary. I think they’re targeting a CB before a safety here. Wouldn’t be surprised if they went wide receiver here either, but I think in the NFC South they’re going to need a much better secondary first.

15. New Orleans

Arthur Brown – LB – Kansas State

Brown is my favorite LB in this draft. I think he’d be a great fit in the middle instead of Hawthorne or even on the outside if necessary.

16. St. Louis Rams

Tavon Austin – WR – West Virginia

Duh.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers

Lane Johnson – OT – Oklahoma

Steelers have pressing needs on defense but they could be enticed by Johnson’s upside here.

18. Dallas Cowboys

Chance Warmack – OG – Alabama

If Warmack is here, can’t see Dallas passing on him. Possibly the best overall player in this draft. Huge OL upgrade.

19. New York Giants

Ezekiel Ansah – DE – BYU

Great physical skill set but so, so raw. Giants would be a good spot for Ansah and fits what they look for.

20. Chicago Bears

Kenny Vaccaro – S – Texas

This pick probably won’t be popular but I feel like Vaccaro fits at SS for the Bears. Remember this is a whole new regime so history means very little. Alternative picks are WR (Hopkins?) or LB.

21. Cincinnati Bengals

Jonathan Cyprien – S – Florida International

I see Andre Smith re-signing with Cincy and therefore they are able to move Reggie Nelson to SS and let Cyprien play FS.

22. St. Louis Rams

Eric Reid – S – LSU

STL are in need of a safety and Eric Reid seems to be flying a bit under the radar in my opinion.

23. Minnesota Vikings

DeAndre Hopkins – WR – Clemson

Best receiver on the board and I think the Vikings love him.

24. Indianapolis

Jesse Williams – DT – Alabama

I think Jesse Williams fits well here for what the Colts want to do. They need a pass rusher but I think Williams clogs up the middle to help LBs stay clean.

25. Minnesota Vikings

Sharrif Floyd – DT – Florida

All of the Vikings defensive linemen are in contract years. Floyd is the best player available here.

26. Green Bay Packers

Menelik Watson – OT – Florida State

I don’t like this pick. I really don’t know who GB picks. It was either Watson or Werner here for me. Very well could be the FSU DE.

27. Houston Texans

Keenan Allen – WR – Cal

Supposedly Houston wants someone opposite Andre Johnson and like Allen. 1 + 1 = 2.

28. Denver Broncos

DJ Hayden – CB – Houston

Broncos aren’t bad at any position. They’re a little weak at DB and I think Hayden is probably the best player available here. Champ may not want to play safety but this could force it.

29. New England Patriots

Justin Hunter – WR – Tennessee

I can almost guarantee you this isn’t who New England picks. Hunter is not the type of guy they draft. Wide receiver is CLEARLY New England’s biggest need and it’s not even close. DB is a distant second. DeAndre Hopkins fits them but he’s long gone. Hunter is big bodied field stretcher that they need.

30. Atlanta Falcons

Bjoern Werner – DE – Florida State

Werner shouldn’t last this long but he could. Falcons could get a steal here.

31. San Francisco 49ers

Datone Jones – DE – UCLA

This isn’t where SF picks. They’ll either move up (Jesse Williams maybe?) or down for some team wanting to move up and grab a QB. In the meantime, Jones is big enough to slide in at DE and could be the heir to Justin Smith’s position.

32. Baltimore Ravens

Kevin Minter – LB – LSU

Another team that could go wide receiver. Quinton Patton or Robert Woods could sneak into the 1st round here.

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The Revis Effect

Blockbuster trades don’t happen often in the NFL. If a big name player is traded it’s usually at the end of his career for fifty-cents-on-the-dollar. A good example of this is Anquan Boldin being traded for a 6th round pick. The real blockbusters – a top echelon player being traded while still in his 20′s – happens maybe once every five to ten years.

We got our blockbuster.

Yesterday, Darrelle Revis was traded from the New York Jets to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for what amounts to a 2013 1st round pick and a 2014 3rd round pick. The Buccaneers also shelled out a 6 year, $16 million per year contract to Revis that is the ultimate pay for performance deal. $13M per year is a base salary, with a $1.5M roster bonus and a $1.5M option bonus each year as well. Essentially, it’s a $16M per year salary and there are no guarantees in the contract.

For Revis, this contract makes sense if he believes he can maintain his level of play for at least a few years. He’s making QB money every year as long as he’s still on the roster. But with no bonus and no guarantees, he can be cut at any time with zero cap penalty to the Bucs. Actually, they are even rewarded with $16M in cap space in all the unplayed years left on the contract.

Not many teams can afford to pay two players “QB type of money.” Josh Freeman is going into the final year of his rookie contract which is one of the reasons that Tampa has enough cap space to sign Revis in the first place. Cap space is now dwindling and will continue to do so if the Bucs decide to re-up Freeman after this year.

So why pay Revis nearly the same amount that the best quarterbacks in the NFL are getting right now? Easy.

The Revis Effect.

Now, no one can predict how Darrelle Revis’ ACL injury will hold up throughout the season. I’ll simply address it as if we’re going to see that same Revis in 2013 that we saw in 2011 – the 1st team All-Pro cornerback that shutdown nearly every wide receiver he covered.

When Revis is in the game, he provides a significant tactical advantage due to his ability to take away a team’s best wide receiver. The best way that I can explain it is by saying Revis is like having an extra defender on the field. His ability to essentially take one of the offenses biggest weapons out of the game frees up a safety for other duties.

Let’s take a look through the lens of the all-22 film.

RevisEffect

What you see here is Revis on an island at the top of the screen. The single-high safety is shading over top of the 2 wide receivers and tight end towards the bottom of the shot. In 11-personnel (1 running back, 1 tight end) and a 3×1 formation (3 receivers to one side) a lot of defenses will elect to play Cover-2 or if they go Cover-3 or Cover-1 man, the CB on an island will usually play in off-coverage. This will allow the receiver a short to intermediate route to ensure that he doesn’t beat the single coverage over the top.

As you see it, even in a personnel package that screams pass, the Jets have 8 men in the box. They’re comfortable leaving Revis in press man outside and a single safety over top of the 3 receivers to one side. The Jets are set up to defend both the run and the pass because of the flexibility that Revis gives them. They’re also daring Tannehill to try to throw at Revis here – something they like to do.

One of the other things that Revis allows is that by dropping a safety in the box the Jets can clutter the middle of the field making it harder to find windows to throw into. Revis essentially has the left 1/3 of the field covered. The Jets have more than enough available players to drop into coverage to blanket the remaining 2/3 of the field.

This is the game that Revis injured his ACL in. That shot was from the 2nd quarter. Revis was injured in the 3rd quarter. Let’s take a look and see how the Jets played after Revis exited the game with an injury.

AntiRevis Effect

In this shot you actually see Tannehill in the shotgun with two running backs and three wide receivers. You can still see all the corners playing press coverage (the Jets preferred alignment) but now you see two high safeties with only 7 men in the box – really 6 if you consider that the nickel corner is over the slot. If the Dolphins were to run it they could run a sweep right, a fullback lead draw, or even a wham or trap here. There are plenty of run options but the Jets are forced to guard against the deep ball a little more because they can’t put any of their corners on an island in the same way they do with Revis.

You can also see how the middle of the field, especially the deep middle, is more open for Tannehill to target with a slant or crossing route.

Revis provides so many other benefits for the Bucs beyond just this one example. The Bucs will be able to play Revis inside or outside, left or right of the formation, match him up against any receiver they wish, match him against a TE (hello, Jimmy Graham), and he’ll also allow the Bucs to toy with their safety alignments with two talented safeties in Goldson and Barron.

Darrelle Revis’ presence will keep a lot more points off the board that the Bucs allowed at times last year. This will also translate into less pressure on Josh Freeman. Freeman routinely had to throw 35+ times to keep putting points on the board in a hurry just to keep his team in the game. Now the Tampa offense will be able to rely a little more on its run game (what it prefers to do) and take some of the weight off of Freeman’s shoulders.

Revis is such an asset in so many ways. Did I mention he’s not shy against the run? (That’s him at the RCB position at the bottom of the shot.)

revisvsrun

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